Simulate multiple portfolio assets (such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or projects) to maximize return while minimizing risk. Calculate Value-at-Risk, or the probability of different losses on a portfolio.
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With a broad library of probability distributions, data fitting tools, and correlation modeling, @RISK lets you represent any scenario in any industry with the highest levelof accuracy.Add Decision & Data Analysis with The DecisionTools SuiteThe complete risk and decision analysis toolkit, including @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, and ScheduleRiskAnalysis.
The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. DecisionTools Suite software integrates seamlessly with Microsoft Excel, and includes the following (note that not all tools are available in all editions):
The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. DecisionTools Suite software integrates seamlessly with Microsoft Excel, and includes:
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The data used for calculation of population-based exposure is shown in Table 2. Prevalence data was available for all drugs except methadone; and amphetamine and methamphetamine were grouped together. For a sub-group of drugs, exposure estimation based on sewage analysis is available (Table 2) (not all drugs are available in sewage analysis due to different stabilities/degradation rates of the compounds, for details see Ref. 26). The corresponding risk functions are shown in Supplementary Table S1 online. Except for ethanol and nicotine, for which certain distributions could be fitted to the data for the European countries, uniform probability distributions were chosen in all other cases as only minimum/maximum prevalence values for Europe in total were available. The detailed calculation formulae chosen for probabilistic risk assessment are shown in Supplementary Table S2 online.
Our MOE results confirm previous drug rankings based on other approaches. Specifically, the results confirm that the risk of cannabis may have been overestimated in the past. At least for the endpoint of mortality, the MOE for THC/cannabis in both individual and population-based assessments would be above safety thresholds (e.g. 100 for data based on animal experiments). In contrast, the risk of alcohol may have been commonly underestimated.
Our results confirm the early study of Gable6 who found that the margin of safety (defined as therapeutic index) varied dramatically between substances. In contrast, our approach is not based on a therapeutic index, which is not necessarily associated with risk, but uses the most recent guidelines for risk assessment of chemical substances, which also takes the population-based exposure into account.
Nevertheless, as previously stressed, our findings should not be interpreted that moderate alcohol consumption poses a higher risk to an individual and their close contacts than regular heroin use14. Much of the harm from drug use is not inherently related to consumption, but is heavily influenced by the environmental conditions of the drug use2, and this additional hazard is not included in a drug ranking based on (animal) toxicology.
The first major problem of the approach is the lack of toxicological dose-response data for all compounds except alcohol and tobacco. No human dose-response data are available; also no dose-response data in animals, only LD50 values are published. Furthermore, no chronic-toxicity data (long-term experiments) are available, which are usually used for such kinds of risk assessment. Therefore, we can assess only in regards to mortality but not carcinogenicity or other long-term effects. The absence of such data is specifically relevant for compounds with low acute toxicity (such as cannabis), the risk of which may therefore be underestimated.
Our approach contains some further limitations: Drug interactions cannot be taken into account as we just do not have any toxicological data on such effects (e.g. by co-administration in animals). However, polydrug use in humans is common, especially of illicit drugs with ethanol or benzodiazepines63. Addiction potential and risk of use (e.g. unclean syringes leading to increased infection risk) are also not considered by the model, because adequate dose-response data could not be identified for these endpoints.
From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK. @RISK helps both Fortune 100 companies and private consultancies paint a realistic picture of possible scenarios. This allows businesses to not only buffer risks, but also identify and exploit opportunities for growth.
Decision Tools is a set of Microsoft excel add-ins for risk and decision analysis. It includes @Risk, StatTools, PrecisionTree, TopRank and other Excel add ins. It is a commercial product from Palisade Corporation. The McCombs School of Business has negotiated a number of licenses for student use. You will need to install Microsoft Office (free Office 365 subscription) first if you are installing Decision Tools on your computer -
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Nevertheless, as previously stressed, our findings should not be interpreted that moderate alcohol consumption poses a higher risk to an individual and their close contacts than regular heroin use14. Much of the harm from drug use is not inherently related to consumption, but is heavily influenced by the environmental conditions of the drug use2 and this additional hazard is not included in a drug ranking based on (animal) toxicology. 2ff7e9595c